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The Beijing Axis presents The China Compass – Q4 2017
Monday, 25 September 2017 02:15

 

The China Compass October 2015The China Compass combines basic country data for China, as well as other major world economies, with more detailed analysis of a wide range of macroeconomic and social data. Presented in a reader-friendly format as a useful desk reference for executives with a China agenda, it reveals a comprehensive picture of the ever-changing and evolving Chinese landscape and contains up-to-date statistics, topical themes and insights.

 

In the same manner that a compass highlights the cardinal points of north, south, east and west, The China Compass is intended to serve as a navigational instrument for determining China's position and direction in the global economic landscape. By closely examining China's importance to and progressive integration with the world economy, The Beijing Axis presents The China Compass as a knowledge tool for executives with a China agenda.

A modest revival in global activity over the past 12 months has created a firmer international context but many uncertainties prevail with a slew of recent political transitions now a defining characteristic of the wider landscape. US economic activity has rebounded but the post-election process remains painful as Americans grapple with issues across a divide. Meanwhile, European revival remains tentative and BREXIT, coupled with shifting political sentiments across Europe, continue to cast a shadow of uncertainty. However, global growth is firmer and emerging markets have stabilised somewhat. As such, a slight rebound in China’s GDP growth of 6.9% in Q2-17, combined with firmer global data, provide a welcome and stable setting for the time being. Also, China’s overall moderation to lower long-term growth is now generally better accepted as the new 'normal’, while previous overblown fears of a hard landing have dissipated.

China’s transformation continues - leaving a wake of changes that has been destructive for some, but that also heralds a new dawn for others. The impact is being felt domestically and internationally. China’s policy makers clearly recognise the risks and evolving nature of the country's social, economic and financial terrain – and despite many mounting challenges, our view is that Beijing still has enough policy leeway to offer critical support and offset the pressures in the economy; so, no hard landing on the horizon. But, as stated previously, deep-rooted and often painful reforms must continue as a matter of urgency so as to safeguard not just the current cycle, but also the structural integrity of China’s economy and its ability to deliver on its long-term development goals. This will ensure sustained high growth – despite many challenges along the way - and the ongoing transition to a consumer-driven, service-oriented and higher-value-add economy.

Meanwhile, China’s global influence is only rising – and plays out across many dimensions, i.e. geopolitics, international economics, trade, capital flows and culture. In our feature segment, we investigate China’s global game by looking into its role in global capital flows, international trade and its wider international influence.

In Section 1, we set the scene. Section 2 features 'China’s global game – outbound investment, trade and evolution and the belt and road initiative’. Sections 3 and 4 provide a more detailed, quantitative look into China's economic, social, financial and geopolitical make-up, domestically and when compared with selected economies in the wider global community. Finally, Section 5 offers insights into key trends and outlines the high-level conclusions, implications and recommendations for players that are engaging in/with China.

We trust that this edition will be useful for those who are in the midst of planning, and that it will shed light on past developments and future prospects of a uniquely Chinese story of human development.

As always, we welcome all feedback.


Kobus van der Wath
Founder / Group Managing Director
Axis Group International & The Beijing Axis
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